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Silver Futures Analysis

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Silver Futures

 

Commodity trading is not suitable for everyone. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Van Commodities, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Van Commodities, Inc. Research Department. Please view our Risk Disclaimer. 

 

Free in-depth analysis of the Silver futures market written by a professional Silver trader.

 

 

March 31, 2013

Silver Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

The silver future (SIK13) traded a roughly eighty-two cent range on an intraday basis last week. The factors which may have played a role in the initial move up, in the holiday shortened week, were concerns over the Euro Zone banking crisis in Cyprus and the inability of Italy to put together a coalition government. Next week SIK13 traders will be paying attention to several events.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet to address possible monetary policy changes, followed Thursday with the European Central Bank, Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meetings. Traders expect no change in policy from any of the Central Banks. Throughout the week traders will be following the release of Purchasing Managers Indices for several major economies to determine the strength of global economic growth. On Friday traders will be waiting for data on the US employment situation with the release of Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment statistics.

SIK13 may find initial resistance at 28.80-29.30, with stronger resistance at 29.80-30.25. SIK13 may find initial support at 28.10, but a move towards 27.00-27.45 may unfold before stronger buying occurs.

 

February 11, 2013

Silver Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

The silver future (SIH13) came into US hours on a weak note falling roughly thirty-eight cents overnight Monday, from New York’s settlement on Friday. Thin trading during Asian and European hours, due to the Chinese Lunar Holiday may have undermined buying pressure and price. The larger trading range for SIH13 is 29.25-34.25, within which a tighter range of 29.75-33.25 can be defined for short term traders.  

 

Initial support for SIH13 may come in at 30.50-30.76 with stronger support at 29.80-30.00. Initial resistance may come in at 31.40-31.60 with further selling at 32.00-32.50.

November 12, 2012 

Metals Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.

The uncertainty for markets, in general, is illustrated well by the price action of December Silver futures, basis the December contract (SIZ12). Today’s action was probably not overly representative of anything as SIZ12 started the week of November 12, 2012 with an inside day as many traders took the Veterans Day off.

Over the past thirteen to fourteen months SIZ12 has traded a range of 26.07-37.48 and SIZ is presently near midrange. The battle between the bulls and bears revolves around the risk on risk off trade and whether major Central Banks around the Globe will continue to add liquidity to their domestic markets into 2013. The continued buying of domestic Government Securities by several major Central Banks over the past several years has pushed investors out of those high priced Government Bonds and into alternative financial assets and commodities.

 

Last weeks price action provided the bulls with very positive price action as SIZ12 not only found buyers at its 200-day moving average (DMA), but 30.76 was also the fifty percent pullback from Silver’s $9.37 run from July lows at 26.07 to Octobers highs at 35.44. The outside reversal week up on weekly charts will also inspire some traders to take a bullish stance on pullbacks. A break above 35.44 would potentially imply a breakout to higher levels around 37.00. Likewise a breakdown below 30.50 would signal a more deflationary environment going into 2013 and a potential move back towards 26.00.

Silver Futures Broker, April 30, 21012

COMEX silver futures basis the May contract (SIK12), closed in the middle of its daily range at 30.96, but down 39 cents from Friday's close. Silver traded more negatively than gold, possibly due to its status as an industrial metal and the negative manufacturing surveys out of the US in the form of the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Survey. With several major economic statistics being reported throughout the week in the US covering the manufacturing and service sector as well as employment statistics, traders may be concerned about further weakening for the US economy going into the Second Quarter. SIK12 appears to be susceptible to economic statistics showing a weakening US and Global economic environment.

SIK12 large range appears to be from $26.00 on the downside to $36.00 on the upside, over a longer time frame. Initial resistance is 31.50 followed by 32.00 and 32.70. Initial support may come in around 30.00 and then 29.00. A move below 28.50 could see SIK move to 26.50.

April 4, 2012 

Metal Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.

The silver futures contract yesterday, April 03, 2012, closed on the top of its daily range at $33.26/ oz during the pit session only to trade lower on the globex system after the Federal Reserve released their minutes from the March FOMC meeting. The minutes confirmed, for many participants in the market, that the FED is in no rush to embark on QE3, because the economy is expanding at a moderate level and employment levels in the U.S. are improving.

 

Silver futures basis the May contract (SIK12) appeared to breaking out to the upside through a neckline of a short term inverse head and shoulders pattern at around 33.20 on the pit session close yesterday. Once the minutes were released at 2.00 pm Eastern Time silver abruptly did an about face and traded down to around 32.60 by the time globex closed at 5:15 Eastern Time. The technical failure of the head and shoulders bottom pattern portends further losses for SIK12. Silver may find some support at 30.30 but it would seem that an initial target will come in around 29.50. Better long term support for SIK12 comes in around 26.00.

Commodity trading is not suitable for everyone. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Van Commodities, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicition. This material is not a research report preparfed by Van Commodities, Inc. Research Department. Please view our Risk Disclaimer.

 
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