March 24, 2013
Palladium Futures Trader, Van Commodities, Inc.
The fundamental supply story for the Palladium future (PAM13) continues to be
supportive of the metal on pullbacks. The forecasted 2013 supply deficit for palladium has resulted in a forty percent rally
since the end of July 2012. The contract has traded in a seventy dollar range, at the high end of its multi month rally, over
the past five weeks. The concern for palladium investors, moving forward, would be a slowdown in the Chinese and US automobile
markets and reduced demand for catalytic converters, the major use for palladium.
Momentum studies on a short term basis are neutral
but would be supportive of further upside action. Initial support may come in at 740.00-750.00, with strong support at 715.00-725.00.
Over the near term initial resistance may come in at 779.00-795.00, with further resistance at 832.00-839.00.
Febraury 18, 2013
Palladium Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
From December 31, 2013 to February 06, 2013 the Platinum Future
(PLJ13) rallied roughly fifteen and a half percent. Mining issues in South Africa, resulting in concern over potential supply
disruptions and improved growth expectations for the global economy, supported the rally. The contract has since fallen back
on renewed concerns about global growth going forward, in particular data indicating further economic weakness in the Euro
registered overbought readings based on several momentum indicators in both short and intermediate term time frames on the
rally that scored an intraday high of 1744.5 on February 06. The contract should find initial resistance at 1708.00-1716.00
and stronger selling at 1726.00-1735.00. Initial support may come in at 1654.00-1660.00 with stronger support at 1626.00-1640.00.
December 12, 2012
Palladium Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
Since October 29 the March Palladium future (PAH13) has appreciated twenty
percent. During that period the increase in long positions by speculative participants, as shown by the most recent Commitment
of Traders Report (COT), has increased on relative terms a considerable amount.
Some traders may put forward the position that
the rally in PAH13 is due to the improved auto demand in the US and Japan and the potential for a pickup in China. The most
recent HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on December 31, 2012 for China came in at 51.5 up from
50.5 in November. The improvement in the PMI has lead many investors to expect further improvement in the Chinese economy
going into 2013.
PAH13 is moving towards an overbought condition, but the contract appears to have some strong buying
pressure underneath it. Initial resistance may appear 726.00-731.00 with further resistance at 736.00-747.00. Initial support
may appear at 686.00-695.00 and stronger support at 672.00-683.00.
December 4, 2012
Futures Broker, Van Commodities, Inc.
Palladium futures basis the January contract (PAF12) pulled back from yesterday’s closing high
at 689.45, after its five week move up. The contract fell along with the gold, silver, platinum and roughly eighty- five percent
of the raw materials included in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index. Uncertainty over the US Fiscal Cliff debacle
continues to undermine both financial and commodity markets. PAF13 continues to trade in a well defined $100.00 range $600.00-700.00
and will probably resolve its longer term direction once traders have a better view for the global economy in 2013.
PAF13 is overbought based on several short term momentum indicators and a further pullback could be expected. Resistance should
appear at 687.00-695.00 and then 704-00-711.00. Initial support may be found 667.00-670.00 and then 634.00-648.
Palladium Futures Broker, May 13, 2012
The Palladium futures contract basis June (PAM12) has traded down seventeen percent from an intraday high on February
29 at $727.80 to an intraday low today of 599.25. The continued move down of PAM12 is a reflection of concerns about global
economic growth. Over the last several days economic news out of China and Europe have shown continued weakening of their
respective economic environments. The banking concerns in Spain and renewed worries over the political situation in Greece
as well as the report of JP Morgan's hedging losses in their CIO portfolio resulted in the risk off trade coming back into
favor in global markets, resulting in a generally firmer U.S. dollar. Most commodity markets were weaker on Friday along with
gold, silver and the PGM sector.
PAM12 is technically oversold based on
several momentum studies and the contract may find some support in the 593-595 area on profit taking. The longer-term trend
appears to be down and the contract should find initial resistance in the 628-635 area. Heavier resistance should come in
at 645-652. An initial downside target would come in at 530.